AI Could Impact 1 In 4 Jobs Globally: ILO

A new global study by the International Labour Organization and Poland’s National Research Institute (NASK) warns that 25% of jobs worldwide could be exposed to generative AI. But the key takeaway isn’t widespread replacement—it’s transformation. Clerical roles and female-dominated occupations face the highest risk, particularly in high-income nations. The study calls for urgent policy action, training, and digital inclusion to ensure AI augments work without worsening inequality or job quality.

A new joint study from the International Labour Organization (ILO) and Poland's National Research Institute (NASK) finds that 1 in 4 jobs worldwide is potentially exposed to generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) — but that transformation, not replacement, is the most likely outcome.

The report, launched on 20 May, and titled Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure, introduces the most detailed global assessment to date of how GenAI may reshape the world of work. The index provides a unique and nuanced snapshot of how AI could transform occupations and employment across countries, by combining nearly 30,000 occupational tasks with expert validation, AI-assisted scoring, and ILO harmonized microdata. "We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs. By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we've created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision," said PawelGmyrek, ILO Senior Researcher and lead author of the study.

New "exposure gradients", which cluster occupations according to their level of exposure to Generative AI, help policymakers distinguish between jobs at high risk of full automation and those more likely to evolve through task transformation. 25 per cent of global employment falls within occupations potentially exposed to GenAI, with higher shares in high-income countries (34 per cent).

Exposure among women continues to be significantly higher. In high-income countries, jobs at the highest risk of automation make up 9.6 per cent of female employment - a stark contrast to 3.5 per cent of such jobs among men.

Clerical jobs face the highest exposure of all, due to GenAI's theoretical ability to automate many of their tasks. However, the expanding skills of GenAI result in increased exposure to some highly digitized cognitive jobs in media-, software- and finance-related occupations. Full job automation, however, remains limited, since many tasks, though done more efficiently, continue to require human involvement. The study highlights the possibly divergent paths for occupations accustomed to rapid digital transformations – such as software developers – and those where limited digital skills might have more negative effects.

Policies guiding digital transitions will be a leading factor in determining the extent to which workers may be retained in occupations that are transforming as a result of AI, and how such transformation affects job quality.

"This index helps identify where GenAI is likely to have the biggest impact, so countries can better prepare and protect workers. Our next step is to apply this new index to detailed labour force data from Poland" said Marek Troszyński, Senior Expert at NASK and one of co-authors of the new paper.

One in four jobs worldwide is potentially exposed to what's known as Generative Artificial Intelligence – or Generative AI (GenAI) – according to a new joint study from the UN labour agency (ILO) and Poland's National Research Institute. The study finds that transforming job descriptions, not widespread job loss, is the more likely result. GenAI refers to systems that can create content such as text, images, code, or data summaries in response to user prompts. As such tools become more widely used, they are expected to reshape the tasks employees

perform each day.

The new ILO-NASK index draws from nearly 30,000 real-world job descriptions using worker surveys, expert reviews, and AI models to identify occupations most susceptible to AI-driven change. "Few jobs consist of tasks that are fully automatable with current AI technology," the authors write. "Transformation of jobs is the most likely impact of GenAI.".

A baby has his general health recorded by a data clerk. The study finds that in high-income countries, jobs considered at the highest risk of AI-driven task automation account for 9.6 per cent of female employment – nearly three times the share for men.

Worldwide, 4.7 per cent of women's jobs fall into the highest-risk category, compared with 2.4 per cent for men. This disparity is due largely to the overrepresentation of women in clerical and administrative roles, which are among the most exposed occupational groups.

These jobs often involve tasks such as data entry and document formatting and scheduling, functions that AI technologies can already perform efficiently.

While these roles are unlikely to disappear entirely, the report warns that partial automation could reduce job quality, leading to fewer responsibilities, stagnating wages, and growing insecurity.

Without targeted training or role redesign, some workers – particularly women – may face limited opportunities to adapt.

The report also identifies stark differences across regions. In high-income countries, 34 per cent of jobs are in occupations exposed to GenAI, compared to just 11 per cent in low-income countries.

Middle-income regions such as Latin America and parts of Asia fall somewhere in between. Europe and Central Asia show the highest gender disparities, driven by high female employment in clerical roles and widespread digital adoption.

Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and the Arab States currently show lower overall exposure but could still experience significant disruption if AI technologies spread without safeguards.

The study cautions that lower exposure does not equal lower risk. In regions where digital access is limited or labour protections are weak, even small-scale automation could destabilise vulnerable sectors.

To ensure that the transition to generative AI supports rather than displaces workers, ILO urges governments, employers, and workers' organisations to act decisively.

Central to the recommended response is the need to strengthen access to digital skills and training, particularly for women and those working in clerical or administrative roles. The agency also highlights the importance of integrating AI planning into the broader labour market and

education policies.

Preparing workforces for transformation will require not only technical training, but also supportive infrastructure, modernised curricula, and alignment between employers' needs and national policies. At the heart of this transition, the authors stress, must be inclusive social dialogue. Workers should have a say in how GenAI is introduced and used in the workplace, and their experiences must inform decisions about implementation. Without this engagement, the risks of unequal outcomes, including widening gender gaps and declining job quality, will be much greater. Finally, the report emphasises that regions with limited digital access must not be left behind. Expanding infrastructure and ensuring equitable access to technology are critical steps in enabling all countries to shape the future of work on their terms.(news.un.org)